SIMULASI RANTAI PASOK CPO-MINYAK GORENG UNTUK MENGURANGI DEFISIT PASOKAN DENGAN PENDEKATAN SISTEM DINAMIK

Muhammad  Al-Farisi; Suprayuandi  Pratama; Herlino Nanang

Authors

Muhammad Al-Farisi STMIK Amikom Surakarta Author
Suprayuandi Pratama Universitas Lembah Dempo Author
Herlino Nanang UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta Author

Keywords:

CPO, Supply Deficit, Cooking Oil, Supply Chain, Dynamic Systems, Simulation

Abstract

This study aims to develop a system dynamics model to analyze and simulate the supply chain from crude palm oil (CPO) to cooking oil, seeking to identify policies that can reduce supply deficits and enhance inventory stability. The model was developed by considering the interrelationships among fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production, CPO production, the oil extraction rate (OER), cooking oil production (in liters), inventory levels, and market demand. A supply deficit is defined as the difference between demand levels and the supply volume the system can fulfill. A case study was conducted using PT XYZ, an anonymized company. Initial model parameters were adopted from the literature and reasonably adjusted to reflect the company's operational characteristics, given the limited access to actual data. Simulations were run over a five-year period with monthly time intervals to illustrate the dynamics of changes in production, inventory, and demand. Three policy scenarios were tested: increasing FFB productivity, improving extraction efficiency via the OER, and implementing safety-stock-based inventory management. Simulation results were used to compare the impact of each scenario on reducing supply deficits, meeting demand, and stabilizing inventory levels. The developed model is expected to serve as a decision-support tool for formulating more adaptive and sustainable supply chain management policies for the CPO-to-cooking-oil sector.

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